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Disasters · California · Closes June 14, 2026

Will Gardengrovenobyl destroy Anaheim or Long Beach?

A binary market on which adjacent city absorbs the brunt of the Garden Grove containment failure event. Resolution determined by FEMA Region IX damage assessment, scored as of May 27, 2026.

Volume
$1,247,394
Liquidity
$84,201
Closes
Imminently
Traders
3,148
24h Volume
$142,887
Price History
80¢ 60¢ 40¢ 20¢ Apr 25 May 2 May 9 May 16 May 25
Anaheim 76¢ +24%
Long Beach 24¢ -26%
Anaheim
76¢
Long Beach
24¢
About this market

On April 17, 2026, an unattended industrial cooling unit at the now-decommissioned Garden Grove Specialty Reactor began emitting low-level radiogeochemical anomalies into the surrounding aquifer. By May 3, the containment cascade had been informally dubbed Gardengrovenobyl by Orange County emergency services and local media.

This market resolves based on which adjacent municipality, Anaheim or Long Beach, sustains the greater quantifiable infrastructural and economic damage per FEMA Region IX official damage assessment, finalized on the resolution date.

Resolution criteria, in order of precedence: (1) total declared loss in USD; (2) population displaced for >72 hours; (3) days of municipal emergency declared. Ties favor Anaheim.

Disclosure: This is an event-contingent market on a low-probability outcome. Etherbets.me makes no representation as to the likelihood or desirability of the underlying event.

Recent Comments (47)
JK
jkesselman
14m ago
Anaheim's bid jumped after the prevailing wind report. Long Beach holding firm under 25¢ now. Position adjusted accordingly.
MR
marketrunner_OC
1h ago
Whoever priced this at 50/50 in April is having a hard week. The geography always favored Anaheim.
PB
priorbettor
3h ago
Long Beach has the ocean breeze plus the port keeping their economic baseline elevated. I'm staying short Anaheim despite the price action.
SW
scotwalker_irvine
5h ago
Reminder that the resolution criteria favor Anaheim on ties. That's effectively a 2-3¢ structural premium baked in. Worth pricing.
DH
disneydaily
8h ago
If the resort is included in Anaheim's damage assessment this thing goes to 95+ overnight. People are sleeping on the entertainment infrastructure exposure.